Premier League / Research preview
Your team’s next game.
A different free pool
every week.
Three teams in the free rotation. One next-match forecast for each. Explore the probabilities, then ask Jude for the wider view.
Weekly free team rotation
This week’s free teams.
Each featured team unlocks its next match only. The rotation changes on Monday in UK time.
Loading the current team pool…
The wider view
Follow more teams.
Ask Jude for the full forecasts.
Interested in the remaining fixtures, goal probabilities or a fresh run closer to kickoff? Email Jude with the teams or matches you follow. He handles access personally while this is a research preview.
Enquiries.FindMyMeds@gmail.com
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Read the numbers fairly
A probability.
A starting point.
Read the complete model guide →
These forecasts come from a reproducible goals model. They show uncertainty rather than promising a result.
This football project is separate from Annfield Plain Pharmacy’s healthcare services.
What is the model using?
A time-weighted attack-and-defence model fitted to completed Premier League results from 2024/25, 2025/26 and the available 2026/27 matches. A Poisson score distribution produces every displayed probability. Limited team evidence is shrunk towards the league baseline.
The first run used 816 completed matches, including the six matches completed on 10 October. Results are from OpenFootball’s CC0 data, with those latest results checked separately. Future kickoff dates can change.
Why can the score say draw but favour a winner?
The most likely exact score is one small part of the distribution. All the possible winning scores together can have a higher probability than all the draws. A score shown at 12% still has an 88% chance of not occurring.
How often are the forecasts updated?
The free team selection changes each Monday. Forecasts are separate timestamped snapshots, updated when Jude runs the model again. A card is hidden once kickoff has passed, until a new next-match preview is published. Nothing here is a live-game forecast.
What is still being developed?
This is a provisional goals-only baseline. It does not include xG, player availability, confirmed lineups, bookmaker prices or a calibrated multi-model ensemble. The initial model settings have not yet been tested against a reserved evaluation set. An improved model and a complete prediction-history dashboard can follow after proper validation.
No demonstrated accuracy advantage or profitable betting edge is claimed. The historical inputs are training data, not 816 audited out-of-sample predictions.